What is foresight?
Foresight is a structured way of exploring possible futures. It does not predict what will happen. It examines change under way, develops plausible scenarios and tests how decisions, institutions and safeguards might perform under different conditions. This helps challenge assumptions, reveal blind spots and prepare before choices become fixed.
Why does FRA use it?
Fundamental rights provide a binding legal baseline and a compass for navigating uncertainty. FRA combines legal expertise, evidence and people’s lived experience to ask who may be affected, where inequalities could deepen, which safeguards may come under pressure and whether people can challenge decisions and obtain a remedy. Considering fundamental rights from the outset supports lawful, inclusive and accountable preparedness. Rights help make future decisions legitimate and sustainable while supporting innovation, resilience and security.
FRA’s exercise on Europe in 2040
FRA identifies 50 factors of change and develops five contrasting scenarios to explore how the protection and realisation of fundamental rights, institutions and public policy could evolve by 2040. Different futures test whether today’s rights, safeguards and remedies can remain effective as conditions change, and what can be done now to strengthen preparedness.
Explore the publications
Fundamental rights in an uncertain future: Strategic foresight for Europe 2040 explores how technological change, environmental pressures, economic uncertainties, security challenges and pressures on democracy could affect the protection of rights, setting out pathways for keeping rights effective in the face of major transitions.
Embedding fundamental rights in foresight: A guide for practitioners offers practical actions and checklists for integrating fundamental rights throughout the foresight cycle: from scanning for future changes and building potential scenarios to stress-testing ideas and communicating results.
Go behind the exercise
Readers who want to explore how the work was developed can download the following background documents:
- Inventory of factors of change – 50 social, technological, environmental, economic, political, values-related and legal developments that could influence the protection and realisation of fundamental rights in Europe by 2040.
- Methodology – how FRA combined evidence and expert participation in horizon scanning, scenario development, visioning, pathway building and stress-testing, while integrating fundamental rights throughout.